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Wild Offense Still Offensive

Unquestionably, the Wild's team MVP so far has to be goalie Devan Dubnyk. But his steady, consistent play also stands in stark contrast to the erratic, inconsistent play of the rest of the team in front of him. And that's a problem.
Image courtesy of © Candice Ward | 2016 Dec 02 Coyle can't get himself, much less the puck, over the line.
On October 29th, the Wild shutout the Stars 4-0. It was the third-straight shutout posted by Dubnyk and the team. At that point, through nine games, the Wild had scored 32 goals, while allowing 19. They were averaging 3.56 goals for/game, and 2.11 goals against/gm.

In the fourteen games since then, the Wild has scored 32 goals, allowing 31. They have averaged 2.29 GF/GM, and 2.21 GA/GM.

For the season, the Wild has averaged 2.78 GF/GM, and 2.17 GA/GM.

What stands out here? Two things:

1) How consistent Dubnyk has been. 2.11, 2.21, and 2.17 GA/GM fall into a very tight cluster. As mentioned above: steady and consistent. In other words, that 2.11 through game nine, inclusive of the 3-straight no-nos, is only 6 basis points off his season-to-date average. Perhaps more tellingly, that 2.11 is only 4.7% lower than his 2.21 in the fourteen games since (mitigating the 3-straight shutouts skewing the 2.17 season-to-date number).

2) How the Wild's offensive output in the first nine games was such an aberration, at least in the context of this season-to-date. 3.56. 2.29, 2.78. In other words, their 3.56 through the first nine was a larger differential (28.1% higher) from their season-to-date average (2.78) than their 2.29 has been since that 4-0 shutout of Dallas (17.6% lower).

The Wild's primary issue, since inception, has been a lack of scoring. Over each of the 15 completed seasons in which the Wild has participated, they have only finished with more goals/game than the league average for that season once. In 2014-2015. Their average differential to the league average is -0.28.

What impact has the Wild's total goals for/against this season had on their history-to-date numbers? The GF/GM has stayed the same (2.49), but the GA/GM has actually dropped, from 2.53 to 2.52. Not a big change, but any measurable change (out to 2 decimal points), when only adding 23 games to 1196 prior games, is note worthy.

The Wild got off to a good start of 6-2-1, including those three-straight shutouts. Since then, they have maintained that defensive play (only 0.10 more goals allowed/game since), but their offense has come back to reality (1.27 fewer goals for/game since). It's a good thing Bruce Boudreau already doesn't have hair.


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4 Comments

The Wild's primary issue, since inception, has been a lack of scoring.

 

This. A million times this.

    • rghrbek and Brett Marshall like this

How the Wild's offensive output in the first nine games was such an aberration...

 

This is so true. I couldn't believe it when they were scoring 4 or 5 goals a game. I knew it wouldn't last at all. That's not who this team is, unfortunately. 

    • Brett Marshall likes this
Brett Marshall
Dec 05 2016 11:04 PM

I think they're starting to find some line combos that are working though (Nino with Coyle and Staal, Mikko and Granlund, Pommer and Haula) and now it's just a matter of of getting all three lines going each night. To me it seems they are starting to trend up and will get up to more average GF/Game

 

I think they're starting to find some line combos that are working though (Nino with Coyle and Staal, Mikko and Granlund, Pommer and Haula) and now it's just a matter of of getting all three lines going each night. To me it seems they are starting to trend up and will get up to more average GF/Game

 

I also like that the lines are adjusted to find what clicks.


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